CHICAGO — Cattle futures posted a turbulent week, surging to strong resistance levels Thursday before retreating sharply Friday as renewed fears about New World Screwworm cases in Texas sent traders liquidating positions heading into the weekend.
August Feeder Cattle hit a session high of 358.75 Friday before talk of another screwworm case near the site of the first confirmed Texas infection pushed prices lower. Futures broke below the 200-day moving average at 353.85, falling to a session low of 351.20 before settling just above the key technical level at 353.90. Thursday’s dramatic session had seen Feeder Cattle trade the brand-new up limit of 10.75 points, forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern that had raised hopes for a sustained rally.
August Live Cattle followed a similar pattern, rallying to a session high of 245.225 Friday before breaking down to close near the session low at 241.65. The selloff pushed prices below support at 242.05 and the flattening 100-day moving average at 241.35, forming a Shooting Star candlestick that market analysts said could signal further near-term weakness.
Despite the futures volatility, underlying cash fundamentals remained firm. Negotiated cash trade in Kansas and Nebraska saw live purchases at $258 per hundredweight, while boxed beef cutouts were mixed with choice cutouts edging up slightly to $392.70 and select declining to $382.69. The choice-select spread widened to $10.01. The Feeder Cattle Index rose to $361.38 as of Thursday’s settlement, reflecting tight physical supply conditions that have persisted throughout the year.
Friday’s estimated slaughter came in at 100,000 head, below last week’s 105,000 and last year’s 102,135. Weekly slaughter of approximately 533,000 head remained below year-ago levels of 581,299, reinforcing the view among market participants that tight cattle supplies — not weak demand — are constraining production. Industry sources indicated that packing plants have been pulling contracted cattle forward to maintain slaughter schedules, a sign that processors do not have sufficient cattle under their control to meet current needs.
Analysts noted that grilling season demand and upcoming beef-heavy holidays are expected to keep consumer demand strong in the near term, which could maintain pressure on packers and support cash prices even if futures remain volatile. However, the screwworm situation in Texas remained the dominant wildcard for the market, with traders reluctant to hold large positions over the weekend amid uncertainty about whether additional cases would be confirmed.
