As the election year unfolds, President Joe Biden is grappling with concerning weaknesses within the Democratic base, with Donald Trump gaining traction among Hispanic voters and the younger demographic. The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals a narrow trail for Biden, with Trump leading 39%-37%, and a notable 17% expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate.
When specific candidates are named, Trump’s lead expands to 3 percentage points, 37%-34%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading third-party candidates at 10%. These findings underscore the challenging political landscape Biden faces in securing a second term.
Biden’s support has eroded, particularly among Black voters, where he now claims only 63%, a significant drop from the 87% he garnered in 2020. Among Hispanic voters, Biden trails by 5 percentage points, a stark contrast to his 2-to-1 advantage in 2020. Furthermore, Trump now leads among voters under 35 by 4 percentage points, with younger voters having overwhelmingly supported Biden in the previous election.
Encouragingly for Biden, much of the lost support seems to have shifted to third-party candidates rather than aligning with his likely opponent. Twenty percent of Hispanic and Black voters, along with 21% of young voters, express their intention to support candidates outside the two main contenders.
Trump maintains the support of 12% of Black voters, mirroring his 2020 figures. Despite a brighter outlook on the economy, with 29% seeing it in recovery, a notable increase from October, this optimism has yet to translate into increased support for Biden.
The challenge for Biden extends beyond boosting overall support to generating voter enthusiasm. The poll indicates that 44% of Trump supporters express high enthusiasm, compared to only 18% among Biden supporters.
To address these challenges, the Biden administration has deployed Vice President Kamala Harris to connect with voters, especially on university campuses. However, the findings highlight her own struggles within the Democratic base, with lower job approval ratings compared to Biden among Black voters and the younger demographic.
Overall, Biden’s job approval stands at 39% approve, 58% disapprove, with Kamala Harris experiencing a 33% approval rating and 57% disapproval. These numbers underscore the imperative for the Biden team to not only regain support but also ignite voter passion leading up to the November elections.
